Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.194716 1.262568 1.333044 1.411869 1.497766 1.588744 1.692672
2026-01-11 1.100560 1.197784 1.303299 1.426956 1.568728 1.727184 1.919092
2026-01-18 1.033166 1.147016 1.274339 1.428527 1.611893 1.825181 2.095340
2026-01-25 0.996406 1.124600 1.271616 1.454702 1.679492 1.950434 2.308005
2026-02-01 0.937986 1.071520 1.227527 1.425921 1.675497 1.984738 2.406384
2026-02-08 0.882093 1.017502 1.178089 1.385841 1.652510 1.990710 2.464931
2026-02-15 0.846011 0.985104 1.152487 1.372718 1.661138 2.035623 2.576051
2026-02-22 0.820400 0.963929 1.139097 1.373385 1.686339 2.102326 2.720456
2026-03-01 0.787524 0.931983 1.110286 1.351957 1.680034 2.124685 2.801878
2026-03-08 0.750405 0.893099 1.070800 1.314215 1.648978 2.109901 2.826232
2026-03-15 0.728746 0.873017 1.054546 1.306296 1.657852 2.151064 2.936514
2026-03-22 0.719972 0.869027 1.058831 1.325869 1.705542 2.250236 3.143683
2026-03-29 0.699135 0.849286 1.042437 1.317562 1.714878 2.296171 3.275126
2026-04-05 0.687660 0.841467 1.041642 1.330874 1.756237 2.393168 3.500410
2026-04-12 0.672694 0.828335 1.032947 1.332287 1.779616 2.463412 3.686809
2026-04-19 0.666570 0.826730 1.039736 1.355893 1.837309 2.591508 3.988733
2026-04-26 0.643942 0.801923 1.013420 1.329935 1.817141 2.591408 4.055734
2026-05-03 0.619149 0.773451 0.981064 1.293745 1.779092 2.559050 4.058320
2026-05-10 0.603660 0.757334 0.965543 1.281885 1.778667 2.589585 4.184759
2026-05-17 0.593004 0.747560 0.958612 1.282488 1.797929 2.654652 4.386181
2026-05-24 0.576642 0.729369 0.939064 1.263111 1.783685 2.660117 4.466344
2026-05-31 0.556469 0.705361 0.910506 1.228946 1.743625 2.617390 4.441298
2026-06-07 0.545380 0.693877 0.899727 1.221772 1.747841 2.654196 4.589798